The last US-Russia nuclear treaty is about to expire. What happens now?

The world is bracing itself for a nuclear winter as the last remaining treaty between the US and Russia on nuclear arms control teeters on the brink of expiration. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, has held limits on both countries' arsenals of deployed nuclear warheads and launchers since 2011, but its 15-year term is set to lapse on Wednesday.

The treaty's expiration has been preceded by a series of tense moments between the two superpowers, with rising tensions over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While US-Russia diplomatic efforts have cooled in recent years, the Biden administration has made no secret of its commitment to reviving nuclear arms control talks with Moscow.

President Donald Trump, however, appears less interested in pursuing meaningful dialogue with Putin on nuclear disarmament. Despite his repeated calls for "denuclearization" talks with Russia and China, there are few signs that he is actively working towards new nuclear agreements with the Russians.

Rose Gottemoeller, a former US arms control negotiator who played a key role in brokering New START, remains skeptical about the prospects for reviving nuclear diplomacy. "We need to be thinking together with other nuclear armed states about how to sustain nuclear stability going forward," she said.

The lack of progress on new nuclear arms control talks has left many experts worried that Russia and the US are heading towards a new era of nuclear proliferation. China's rapid nuclear build-up is adding to the complexity of global security dynamics, making it increasingly difficult for the two major nuclear powers to agree on new limits on their arsenals.

The integration of artificial intelligence into command-and-control systems is also raising concerns about the destabilizing effects on deterrence. Gottemoeller warned that "the very same technology that improves our ability to find and track mobile missiles could eventually, at some point, be an issue."

Despite these challenges, there are still glimmers of hope for reviving nuclear arms control talks between the US and Russia. The fact that top leaders like Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi publicly rebuked Putin over his threats to use nuclear weapons suggests that there may be a renewed willingness among key players to talk about reducing nuclear stockpiles.

However, it's clear that preventing another Cold War-style nuclear arms race will require sustained diplomatic efforts from all parties involved. As Gottemoeller noted, "the nuclear threat was constantly discussed in the early months following the invasion of Ukraine... but somehow, it didn't lead to a new era of nuclear proliferation."

In short, the world needs to learn from history and work together on maintaining nuclear stability. The stakes are high, but the potential rewards – a safer, more secure world for all – make the effort worthwhile.

I'm low-key terrified about this whole nuclear winter thing ️. It's crazy how something that was supposed to keep us safe is now on the brink of collapse. We need to get back to having some sort of framework in place, stat! I mean, think about it - no treaties = more warheads = more risk of nuclear accidents = disaster . Can we please just have a calm and rational conversation about this?

I'm really hoping that US and Russia can get back on track with reviving new START treaty before it's too late... 15 years have flown by and tensions are rising, not to mention China's rapid nuclear build-up adding to the complexity . We've learned from history how devastating a nuclear war would be, so let's work together for a safer future !

its super worrying about this treaty expiring ... i mean, we've seen how quickly tensions can escalate between us and Russia over Ukraine, imagine what could happen if they start making moves on nukes again . its clear that both sides have to find a middle ground here - the US needs to show it's committed to talking with Russia, but not just for the sake of it . gottemoeller makes a good point about needing to work together with other nuclear-armed states too... maybe we can learn from China's rapid build-up and try to find a way to balance security concerns with reducing our arsenals . any way, its gotta be better than a nuke winter

I'm getting the heebie-jeebies thinking about this nuclear winter thing... A 15-year treaty is like, super long, and I hope they figure out some way to update it without everything going kablooey . It's all very complicated, what with AI and China and Russia and everyone else... . But you know what would make this better? A nice, clear, easy-to-read timeline ️. Like, a format that shows when things started to go downhill, when the talks stopped, and when everything got tense again . That would really help me understand what's going on... .

I'm getting major anxiety thinking about this nuclear winter thing! Like, what if we can't get our acts together to control the nukes? Russia and US have been talking trash lately, but what if it's just a bunch of hot air? Shouldn't we be doing more to prevent another Cold War-style arms race? China's building up its nuclear arsenal too, so it's like, how are we even supposed to keep track of all this? And what about AI taking over our command systems? That's some serious sci-fi horror right there! But, I guess if top leaders like Xi and Modi are saying no to Putin on using nukes... that's a good sign? Maybe we can avoid another nuclear disaster. Fingers crossed, but seriously, we gotta do better than this.

This is a super concerning situation - the world literally has its finger on the nuclear button . I'm really worried that if we don't revive New START, Russia and the US will start building even more nukes . The thought of AI being used in command-and-control systems to destabilize deterrence makes me go . We've seen what happened during the Cold War - it's not a scenario we want to repeat . I do think there are glimmers of hope with top leaders rebuking Putin, but at the end of the day, diplomacy is all about working together . We need to put aside our differences and focus on maintaining nuclear stability. It's not going to be easy, but it's gotta be worth it

This whole thing about New START expiring is super concerning. I mean, we can't just ignore the risks of a nuclear winter and hope for the best. It's like, what if those tensions between US and Russia escalate further? What if Putin starts playing with fire and we're all left to deal with the fallout? We need some serious diplomatic efforts from both sides, like Rose Gottemoeller said. And let's not forget about China's nuclear build-up – it's like adding more fuel to the fire. But at the same time, I'm kinda hopeful that top leaders are finally starting to realize how crazy this situation is and might actually be willing to talk things out. Still, we can't just sit back and wait for someone else to solve this problem – it's up to us all to stay vigilant and push for nuclear stability.

The specter of a nuclear winter looms large as the New START treaty's expiration date draws near . One can't help but feel a sense of trepidation at the prospect of a new era of nuclear proliferation, with China's rapid build-up adding fuel to the fire .

It's encouraging to see top leaders like Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi publicly rebuking Putin over his threats to use nuclear weapons . However, as Rose Gottemoeller astutely observed, the mere fact that the nuclear threat was discussed in the early months following the Ukraine invasion didn't lead to a new era of proliferation .

I think the key to preventing another Cold War-style nuclear arms race lies in sustained diplomatic efforts from all parties involved . The integration of artificial intelligence into command-and-control systems is indeed a concern, but it's not insurmountable .

In my view, the world needs to take a proactive approach to maintaining nuclear stability . We need to work together to develop new norms and frameworks that prioritize disarmament over escalation . The potential rewards – a safer, more secure world for all – far outweigh the risks .